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Fundacion AIFI vs Petrolero de Anzoategui — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
4 – 2
Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
4/12/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fundacion AIFI42%
×Draw27%
Petrolero de Anzoategui30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.32
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.07

Fundacion AIFI creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.58

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Petrolero de Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
70%
Fundacion AIFI or Petrolero de Anzoategui
73%
Draw or Petrolero de Anzoategui
58%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
19%
Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
73%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
38%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
15%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
66%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
29%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
58%
Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.13 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
42%
level
27%
Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
30%

Fundacion AIFI at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 4–2 Petrolero de Anzoategui

Fundacion AIFI beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 4-2 in Segunda División on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).