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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs Ciudad Vinotinto — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
FT
1 – 2
Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
4/6/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui53%
×Draw26%
Ciudad Vinotinto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.48
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.81

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 83% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.50

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13
Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

Ciudad Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
79%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or Ciudad Vinotinto
74%
Draw or Ciudad Vinotinto
47%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
27%
Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
77%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
43%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
19%
Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
56%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
19%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
72%
Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Ciudad Vinotinto away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.50 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
53%
level
26%
Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
21%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Petrolero de Anzoategui 1–2 Ciudad Vinotinto

Ciudad Vinotinto beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 2-1 in Segunda División on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).