Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ciudad Vinotinto vs Petrolero de Anzoategui — Segunda División 2018

Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
FT
2 – 2
Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
2/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ciudad Vinotinto35%
×Draw27%
Petrolero de Anzoategui38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.21
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
0.83
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13

allows per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.58

finishing

Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par
Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Vinotinto ↓

Petrolero de Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad Vinotinto or draw
62%
Ciudad Vinotinto or Petrolero de Anzoategui
73%
Draw or Petrolero de Anzoategui
65%

Winning margin

Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
15%
Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
70%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
34%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
12%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
72%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
36%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
48%
Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Vinotinto at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.83 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.13 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
35%
level
27%
Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
38%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Vinotinto vs Petrolero de Anzoategui

Ciudad Vinotinto and Petrolero de Anzoategui drew 2-2 in Segunda División on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).