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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
FT
1 – 2
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
3/21/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui50%
×Draw25%
CA Furrial24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.58
CA Furrial
1.02

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
76%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or CA Furrial
75%
Draw or CA Furrial
50%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
26%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
79%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
47%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
21%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
64%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
27%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
67%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
50%
level
25%
CA Furrial scores more
24%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Petrolero de Anzoategui 1–2 CA Furrial

CA Furrial beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 2-1 in Segunda División on March 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).