CA Furrial vs Petrolero de Anzoategui — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
CA Furrial39%
Petrolero de Anzoategui36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 31 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CA Furrial ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches
Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39
Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.13 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
CA Furrial at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "CA Furrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CA Furrial
Gran Valencia
Libertador FC
Petare FC
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuyanos FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Real Frontera
Titanes FC
ULA FC
Urena SC
Angostura FC
Diamantes de Guayana
Ciudad Vinotinto
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Fundacion AIFIPetrolero de Anzoategui
UCVYaracuy FCGran ValenciaYaracuyanos FCPetare FCCA FurrialLibertador FCTitanes FCReal FronteraCD Hermanos ColmenarezUrena SCDeportivo JBL del ZuliaAtletico el Vigia FCULA FCAngostura FCUCVFundacion AIFIPetrolero de AnzoateguiDinamo de Puerto La CruzDiamantes de GuayanaCiudad VinotintoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CA Furrial host Petrolero de Anzoategui on Wednesday, 25 July 2018 at 19:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
CA Furrial 1 – 0 Petrolero de Anzoategui
CA Furrial beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 1-0 in Segunda División on July 25, 2018.
The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín).