Petrojet 2–1 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC: Result & Stats

Petrojet

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

4/20/2019

Premier League · Round 30Egyptian Army Stadium (Suez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Petrojet40%

×Draw28%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrojetExpected goals in this matchNogoom El Mostakbal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.08

Petrojet

1.23

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.08

Petrojet creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

0.87

creates per match

1.12

1.04

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Petrojet

0.87

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.12

allows per match

Petrojet

1.04

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw

68%

Petrojet or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

72%

Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

60%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+

17%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals

71%

Petrojet 2+ goals

35%

Petrojet 3+ goals

13%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals

66%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals

29%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)

55%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 0.87 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Petrojet defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Petrojet scores more

40%

level

28%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more

32%

Petrojet at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff