Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3–2 Petrojet: Result & Stats

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Petrojet

11/6/2018

Premier League · Round 13Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC34%

×Draw29%

Petrojet37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nogoom El Mostakbal FCExpected goals in this matchPetrojet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.14

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.07

Petrojet

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

0.65

creates per match

1.16

1.12

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

0.65

Petrojet

1.16

allows per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.12

Petrojet

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Petrojet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC ↓

Petrojet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or draw

63%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or Petrojet

71%

Draw or Petrojet

66%

Winning margin

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+

13%

Petrojet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals

66%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals

29%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals

9%

Petrojet 1+ goals

68%

Petrojet 2+ goals

32%

Petrojet 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)

48%

Petrojet (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Petrojet away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 0.65 + Petrojet defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.07

Petrojet attack 1.16 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more

34%

level

29%

Petrojet scores more

37%

Petrojet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff