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Petrojet vs Misr El Makasa — Premier League 2018

Petrojet
Petrojet
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Misr El Makasa
Misr El Makasa
11/1/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12New Suez Stadium (as-Suways (Suez))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Petrojet39%
×Draw30%
Misr El Makasa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrojet
1.12
Misr El Makasa
0.96

Petrojet creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 68 away

creates per match

Petrojet
0.87
Misr El Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Petrojet
1.04
Misr El Makasa
1.37

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par
Misr El Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Misr El Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw
69%
Petrojet or Misr El Makasa
70%
Draw or Misr El Makasa
61%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+
16%
Misr El Makasa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals
67%
Petrojet 2+ goals
31%
Petrojet 3+ goals
10%
Misr El Makasa 1+ goals
62%
Misr El Makasa 2+ goals
25%
Misr El Makasa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)
56%
Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Misr El Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 0.87 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.12

Misr El Makasa attack 0.87 + Petrojet defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Petrojet scores more
39%
level
30%
Misr El Makasa scores more
31%

Petrojet at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Petrojet 0–1 Misr El Makasa

Misr El Makasa beat Petrojet 1-0 in Premier League on November 1, 2018.

The match was played at New Suez Stadium (as-Suways (Suez)).