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Misr El Makasa vs Petrojet — Premier League 2018

Misr El Makasa
Misr El Makasa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petrojet
Petrojet
4/15/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium) (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Misr El Makasa36%
×Draw27%
Petrojet37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr El Makasa
1.21
Petrojet
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Misr El Makasa
0.94
Petrojet
1.16

allows per match

Misr El Makasa
1.28
Petrojet
1.49

finishing

Misr El Makasa+0.00on par
Petrojet+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr El Makasa ↓

Petrojet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Misr El Makasa or draw
63%
Misr El Makasa or Petrojet
73%
Draw or Petrojet
64%

Winning margin

Misr El Makasa wins by 2+
15%
Petrojet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Misr El Makasa 1+ goals
70%
Misr El Makasa 2+ goals
34%
Misr El Makasa 3+ goals
12%
Petrojet 1+ goals
70%
Petrojet 2+ goals
34%
Petrojet 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)
50%
Petrojet (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr El Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Petrojet away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr El Makasa attack 0.94 + Petrojet defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Petrojet attack 1.16 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Misr El Makasa scores more
36%
level
27%
Petrojet scores more
37%

Petrojet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Misr El Makasa vs Petrojet

Petrojet beat Misr El Makasa 2-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2019.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium) (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).