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Petrojet vs Ghazl El Mehalla — Premier League 2018

Petrojet
Petrojet
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
9/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Petrojet43%
×Draw30%
Ghazl El Mehalla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrojet
1.18
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.86

Petrojet creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

creates per match

Petrojet
0.98
Ghazl El Mehalla
0.71

allows per match

Petrojet
1.02
Ghazl El Mehalla
1.37

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par
Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw
73%
Petrojet or Ghazl El Mehalla
70%
Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla
57%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+
19%
Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals
69%
Petrojet 2+ goals
33%
Petrojet 3+ goals
12%
Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
58%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
21%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)
62%
Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 0.98 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.71 + Petrojet defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petrojet scores more
43%
level
30%
Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
27%

Petrojet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. ShoushaGhazl El MehallaGhazl El Mehalla · D
8.2

Match Events

35'
Mahmoud Bolbol Nabil
39'
Mahmoud Shedid Kenawi
45'
Mohamed Ibrahim Dodo
45'
Mohamed Ibrahim Dodo
45'
Mohamed Ibrahim Dodo
46'
M. Abdelsalam← M. Bolbol
46'
M. Salah← A. Gamal
52'
Siko Sonko
64'
M. Hafez← M. Toure
73'
M. El Gamal← A. Bah
77'
Y. El Azab← M. S. Afifi A.
83'
Mohamed Grendo
90+5'
H. A. El Hakim A.← M. Grendo

Possession

38%Petrojet

Shots

8Petrojet

Pass accuracy

42%Petrojet

Statistics

PetrojetGhazl
Overview
38%Possession62%
8Total Shots8
1Corners5
15Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots8
0On Target1
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
225Total Passes377
124Accurate Passes282
55%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls18
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Premier League: Petrojet 0–0 Ghazl El Mehalla

Petrojet and Ghazl El Mehalla drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 22, 2025.

Ghazl El Mehalla controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.