Petrojet 2–1 Ghazl El Mehalla: Result & Stats

Petrojet

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ghazl El Mehalla

Rashad Metwally 90+8' (pen)

I. Bamba 69'

M. Hammouda 47'

3/5/2025

Premier League · Round 17Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Petrojet43%

×Draw30%

Ghazl El Mehalla27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrojetExpected goals in this matchGhazl El Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.86

Petrojet

1.18

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.86

Petrojet creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

0.98

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Petrojet

0.98

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.71

allows per match

Petrojet

1.02

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrojet+0.00on par

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Ghazl El Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw

73%

Petrojet or Ghazl El Mehalla

70%

Draw or Ghazl El Mehalla

57%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+

19%

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals

69%

Petrojet 2+ goals

33%

Petrojet 3+ goals

12%

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

58%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

21%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)

62%

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.02 · 49 matches

Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 0.98 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.71 + Petrojet defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petrojet scores more

43%

level

30%

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

27%

Petrojet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Rashad Metwally

Petrojet · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

Khaled Abo Ziada

27'

Mohamed Ali Ben Hammouda

30'

Abdo Yehia

47'

M. Hammouda↳ Abdel Kader Yehia

58'

Ahmed Farouk← Mostafa El Gamal

58'

Badr Moussa← Khaled Abo Ziada

61'

Ahmed Bahbah

61'

Tawfik Mohamed

67'

Mohamed Ashraf

68'

Ahmed Fawzi← Mohamed Ashraf Fahmy

69'

I. Bamba↳ Tawfik Mohamed

75'

Islam Hesham← G. Chukwudi

82'

Mohamed Hamdy Zaki← Abdel Kader Yehia

87'

Mahmoud Wadi← Mohamed Ashraf Ben Sharqi

87'

Emad Mayhoub← R. Arfaoui

90+8'

Rashad Metwaly

90+4'

BambaPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Amer Mohamed

90+9'

Abdallah Mahmoud← Rashad Metwally

90+9'

Islam Abdallah← Tawfik Mohamed

90+8'

Rashad MetwallyPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrojetGhazl

Overview

42%Possession58%

25Total Shots9

5Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots9

6On Target2

14Off Target5

5Blocked2

17Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

295Total Passes429

186Accurate Passes302

63%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1