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Petrocub vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Petrocub
Petrocub
FT
3 – 0
Floreşti
Floreşti
8/9/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Petrocub76%
×Draw15%
Floreşti9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrocub
2.49
Floreşti
0.71

Petrocub creates 251% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 62 away

creates per match

Petrocub
2.16
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Petrocub
0.61
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw
91%
Petrocub or Floreşti
85%
Draw or Floreşti
24%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+
53%
Floreşti wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals
92%
Petrocub 2+ goals
71%
Petrocub 3+ goals
45%
Floreşti 1+ goals
51%
Floreşti 2+ goals
16%
Floreşti 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)
90%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.61 · 102 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.16 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.49

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Petrocub defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Petrocub scores more
76%
level
15%
Floreşti scores more
9%

Petrocub at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrocub vs Floreşti

Petrocub beat Floreşti 3-0 in Super Liga on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Hînceşti.