Floreşti 2–2 Petrocub: Result & Stats | Cupa

Floreşti

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Petrocub

10/19/2022

Cupa · Round of 16Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Floreşti56%

×Draw19%

Petrocub25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchPetrocub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.63

Floreşti

2.48

Petrocub

1.63

Floreşti creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.33

creates per match

1.25

2.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Floreşti

3.33

Petrocub

1.25

allows per match

Floreşti

2.00

Petrocub

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Petrocub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

75%

Floreşti or Petrocub

81%

Draw or Petrocub

44%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

35%

Petrocub wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

92%

Floreşti 2+ goals

70%

Floreşti 3+ goals

44%

Petrocub 1+ goals

80%

Petrocub 2+ goals

48%

Petrocub 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

69%

Petrocub (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 3.33 + Petrocub defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.48

Petrocub attack 1.25 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Floreşti scores more

56%

level

19%

Petrocub scores more

25%

Floreşti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff