Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Petro de Luanda vs Isaac de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
Quinito 61'
Tiago Azulao 42'
Julinho 37'
Biter 90+5'
Seque 90+3'
2/22/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petro de Luanda68%
×Draw21%
Isaac de Benguela11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.90
Isaac de Benguela
0.61

Petro de Luanda creates 211% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Isaac de Benguela
0.79

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
Isaac de Benguela
1.79

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Isaac de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
89%
Petro de Luanda or Isaac de Benguela
79%
Draw or Isaac de Benguela
32%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
42%
Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
85%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
56%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
29%
Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
46%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
13%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
86%
Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
68%
level
21%
Isaac de Benguela scores more
11%

Petro de Luanda at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Julinho
42'
Tiago Azulao
61'
Quinito
90+3'
Seque
90+5'
Biter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Isaac de Benguela

Petro de Luanda beat Isaac de Benguela 3-2 in Girabola on February 22, 2025.

Goals: Julinho (37'), Tiago Azulao (42'), Quinito (61'), Seque (90+3'), Biter (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.