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Isaac de Benguela vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
Unknown 69'
Julinho 90+2', 9'
10/2/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela15%
×Draw26%
Petro de Luanda59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
0.60
Petro de Luanda
1.48

Petro de Luanda creates 147% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 104 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Petro de Luanda
1.81

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–119%
0–214%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
41%
Isaac de Benguela or Petro de Luanda
74%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
85%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
4%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
45%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
12%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
2%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
77%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
43%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
20%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.60

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
15%
level
26%
Petro de Luanda scores more
59%

Petro de Luanda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Julinho
69'
90+2'
Julinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isaac de Benguela vs Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Isaac de Benguela 2-1 in Girabola on October 2, 2024.

Goals: Julinho (9', 90+2'), ? (69').

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.