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Petro de Luanda vs ES Sahel — CAF Champions League 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ES Sahel
ES Sahel
3/2/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 6Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petro de Luanda45%
×Draw31%
ES Sahel24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.17
ES Sahel
0.77

Petro de Luanda creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
1.15
ES Sahel
0.87

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.67
ES Sahel
1.20

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
ES Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

ES Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
76%
Petro de Luanda or ES Sahel
69%
Draw or ES Sahel
55%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
20%
ES Sahel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
69%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
33%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
11%
ES Sahel 1+ goals
54%
ES Sahel 2+ goals
18%
ES Sahel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
65%
ES Sahel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

ES Sahel away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.15 + ES Sahel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

ES Sahel attack 0.87 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
45%
level
31%
ES Sahel scores more
24%

Petro de Luanda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs ES Sahel

Petro de Luanda beat ES Sahel 2-0 in CAF Champions League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.