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ES Sahel vs Petro de Luanda — CAF Champions League 2019

ES Sahel
ES Sahel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
12/2/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 2Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ES Sahel49%
×Draw28%
Petro de Luanda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Sahel
1.38
Petro de Luanda
0.88

ES Sahel creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

ES Sahel
1.60
Petro de Luanda
1.09

allows per match

ES Sahel
0.67
Petro de Luanda
1.15

finishing

ES Sahel+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Sahel ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Sahel or draw
76%
ES Sahel or Petro de Luanda
72%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
51%

Winning margin

ES Sahel wins by 2+
23%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ES Sahel 1+ goals
75%
ES Sahel 2+ goals
40%
ES Sahel 3+ goals
16%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
59%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
22%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ES Sahel (draw refunded)
67%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Sahel attack 1.60 + Petro de Luanda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Petro de Luanda attack 1.09 + ES Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ES Sahel scores more
49%
level
28%
Petro de Luanda scores more
24%

ES Sahel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: ES Sahel 0–2 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat ES Sahel 2-0 in CAF Champions League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi in Radès.