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Petro de Luanda vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 0
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
9/14/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Petro de Luanda62%
×Draw24%
Desportivo Huíla13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.61
Desportivo Huíla
0.59

Petro de Luanda creates 173% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 100 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.42
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
87%
Petro de Luanda or Desportivo Huíla
76%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
38%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
34%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
80%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
48%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
22%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
45%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
12%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
82%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.42 · 113 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.61

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
62%
level
24%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
13%

Petro de Luanda at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Petro de Luanda 2–0 Desportivo Huíla

Petro de Luanda beat Desportivo Huíla 2-0 in Girabola on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.