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Desportivo Huíla vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
2/19/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Desportivo Huíla30%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
0.97
Petro de Luanda
1.20

Petro de Luanda creates 24% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 109 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
59%
Desportivo Huíla or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
70%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
11%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
62%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
25%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
7%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
70%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
34%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
42%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.97

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
30%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
41%

Petro de Luanda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs Petro de Luanda

Desportivo Huíla and Petro de Luanda drew 1-1 in Girabola on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional da Tundavala in Lubango.