Petro de Luanda 5–1 Baixa de Kassange

Petro de Luanda

FT

5 – 1

Baixa de Kassange

1/12/2021

Girabola · Round 3Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petro de Luanda72%

×Draw19%

Baixa de Kassange9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchBaixa de Kassange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.55

Petro de Luanda

2.00

Baixa de Kassange

0.55

Petro de Luanda creates 264% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

2.01

creates per match

0.67

0.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

2.01

Baixa de Kassange

0.67

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.43

Baixa de Kassange

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Baixa de Kassange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

91%

Petro de Luanda or Baixa de Kassange

81%

Draw or Baixa de Kassange

28%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

46%

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

86%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

59%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

32%

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals

42%

Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals

11%

Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

89%

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

72%

level

19%

Baixa de Kassange scores more

9%

Petro de Luanda at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff