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Baixa de Kassange vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
FT
1 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
5/8/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange22%
×Draw28%
Petro de Luanda51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baixa de Kassange
0.79
Petro de Luanda
1.37

Petro de Luanda creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange
1.00
Petro de Luanda
1.81

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange
0.93
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw
49%
Baixa de Kassange or Petro de Luanda
72%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
78%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
7%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
55%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
19%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
5%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
75%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
40%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
30%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more
22%
level
28%
Petro de Luanda scores more
51%

Petro de Luanda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Baixa de Kassange 1–2 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Baixa de Kassange 2-1 in Girabola on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.