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Petřín Plzeň vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/30/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petřín Plzeň61%
×Draw19%
Otava Katovice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.38
Otava Katovice
1.29

Petřín Plzeň creates 84% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 56 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
80%
Petřín Plzeň or Otava Katovice
81%
Draw or Otava Katovice
39%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
39%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
91%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
68%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
42%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
72%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
37%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
76%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.38

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
61%
level
19%
Otava Katovice scores more
20%

Petřín Plzeň at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petřín Plzeň vs Otava Katovice

Petřín Plzeň beat Otava Katovice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.