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Otava Katovice vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
3/4/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 16Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Otava Katovice45%
×Draw22%
Petřín Plzeň34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.98
Petřín Plzeň
1.71

Otava Katovice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
66%
Otava Katovice or Petřín Plzeň
78%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
55%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
25%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
86%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
59%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
31%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
82%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
51%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
57%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
45%
level
22%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
34%

Otava Katovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Otava Katovice 1–1 Petřín Plzeň

Otava Katovice and Petřín Plzeň drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Dudák Arena in Katovice.