Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Petřín Plzeň vs Doubravka — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Doubravka
Doubravka
3/11/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petřín Plzeň57%
×Draw21%
Doubravka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.11
Doubravka
1.26

Petřín Plzeň creates 67% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 84 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Doubravka
1.27

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Doubravka
1.75

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Doubravka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
78%
Petřín Plzeň or Doubravka
79%
Draw or Doubravka
43%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
34%
Doubravka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
88%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
62%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
35%
Doubravka 1+ goals
72%
Doubravka 2+ goals
36%
Doubravka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
72%
Doubravka (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.11

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
57%
level
21%
Doubravka scores more
22%

Petřín Plzeň at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petřín Plzeň vs Doubravka

Petřín Plzeň beat Doubravka 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň in Plzeň.