Doubravka 2–2 Petřín Plzeň: Result & Stats

Doubravka

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Petřín Plzeň

3/16/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Doubravka UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Doubravka43%

×Draw21%

Petřín Plzeň36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoubravkaExpected goals in this matchPetřín Plzeň

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.80

Doubravka

1.97

Petřín Plzeň

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

2.28

creates per match

2.05

1.55

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Doubravka

2.28

Petřín Plzeň

2.05

allows per match

Doubravka

1.55

Petřín Plzeň

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Petřín Plzeň →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw

64%

Doubravka or Petřín Plzeň

79%

Draw or Petřín Plzeň

57%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+

23%

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals

86%

Doubravka 2+ goals

58%

Doubravka 3+ goals

31%

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals

83%

Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals

54%

Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)

54%

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Doubravka scores more

43%

level

21%

Petřín Plzeň scores more

36%

Doubravka at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff