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Petřín Plzeň II vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň II
Petřín Plzeň II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
4/6/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Petřín Plzeň II41%
×Draw23%
Jindřichův Hradec37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň II
1.75
Jindřichův Hradec
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň II
1.00
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň II
2.17
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Petřín Plzeň II+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň II ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň II or draw
63%
Petřín Plzeň II or Jindřichův Hradec
77%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
59%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň II wins by 2+
21%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň II 1+ goals
83%
Petřín Plzeň II 2+ goals
52%
Petřín Plzeň II 3+ goals
25%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
81%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
49%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň II (draw refunded)
53%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň II attack 1.00 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Petřín Plzeň II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Petřín Plzeň II scores more
41%
level
23%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
37%

Petřín Plzeň II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Petřín Plzeň II 0–2 Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Petřín Plzeň II 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Velodrome Plzeň hřiště 3 in Plzeň.