Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jindřichův Hradec vs Petřín Plzeň II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Petřín Plzeň II
Petřín Plzeň II
9/8/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec47%
×Draw21%
Petřín Plzeň II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.04
Petřín Plzeň II
1.64

Jindřichův Hradec creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Petřín Plzeň II
1.07

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Petřín Plzeň II
2.63

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Petřín Plzeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
69%
Jindřichův Hradec or Petřín Plzeň II
79%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň II
53%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
27%
Petřín Plzeň II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
87%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
60%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
33%
Petřín Plzeň II 1+ goals
81%
Petřín Plzeň II 2+ goals
49%
Petřín Plzeň II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
60%
Petřín Plzeň II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Petřín Plzeň II away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Petřín Plzeň II defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.04

Petřín Plzeň II attack 1.07 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
47%
level
21%
Petřín Plzeň II scores more
31%

Jindřichův Hradec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Petřín Plzeň II

Petřín Plzeň II beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.