Peterhead 2–2 Hamilton Academical: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hamilton Academical

C. Smith 62'

C. McGuffie 30'

S. McKinstry 89'

O. Shaw 43'

9/13/2025

League #183 · Round 6Balmoor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Peterhead25%

×Draw21%

Hamilton Academical54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.14

Peterhead

1.40

Hamilton Academical

2.14

Hamilton Academical creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

2.45

1.83

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Peterhead

1.25

Hamilton Academical

2.45

allows per match

Peterhead

1.83

Hamilton Academical

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

46%

Peterhead or Hamilton Academical

79%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

75%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

11%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

75%

Peterhead 2+ goals

41%

Peterhead 3+ goals

17%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

88%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

63%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

32%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.25 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hamilton Academical attack 2.45 + Peterhead defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peterhead scores more

25%

level

21%

Hamilton Academical scores more

54%

Hamilton Academical at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

C. Smith

30'

C. McGuffie

43'

O. Shaw↳ S. McKinstry

55'

S. McKinstry

62'

C. Smith

66'

J. Brown← A. McCarthy

66'

D. Wilson← A. Carnwath

71'

72'

75'

77'

77'

81'

83'

84'

87'

89'

S. McKinstry↳ L. Kilday

Peterhead

Hamilton

31

Smith

2

Hutton

30

Gallacher

4

A

22

16

8

17

9

⚽

▼

Shaw

27

⚽A

McKinstry

7

O'Hara

1

Newman

14

▼

15

5

3

8

▼

McCarthy

7

⚽

▼

McGuffie

21

Forrest

17

⚽

▼

Smith

77

▼

Barry

10

Shanks

Manager: Jordon Brown

66'▲J. Brown←▼A. McCarthy

66'▲D. Wilson←▼A. Carnwath

71'▲N. McGinn←▼M. Barry

72'▲S. Ross←▼C. McGuffie

84'▲O. Colloty←▼C. Smith

Peterhead substitutes

13Oluyemi9Colloty12Brown20McGinn23Mackie22Ross24Smith16Wilson4Goldie

Manager: John Rankin

81'▲B. Mcluckie←▼O. Shaw

Hamilton Academical substitutes

52Marks32Eadie47Carson40Mackinnon11Mcluckie

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Hamilton Academical

Peterhead and Hamilton Academical drew 2-2 in League #183 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: C. McGuffie (30'), O. Shaw (43'), C. Smith (62'), S. McKinstry (89').

The match was played at Balmoor in Peterhead.

Peterhead vs Hamilton Academical — League #183 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Hamilton Academical