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Peterhead vs Hamilton Academical — League Cup 2025

Peterhead
Peterhead
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
C. Newbury 33'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageBalmoor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peterhead13%
×Draw20%
Hamilton Academical67%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
0.75
Hamilton Academical
2.04

Hamilton Academical creates 172% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.75

allows per match

Peterhead
2.33
Hamilton Academical
0.50

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–213%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
33%
Peterhead or Hamilton Academical
80%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
87%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
4%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
53%
Peterhead 2+ goals
17%
Peterhead 3+ goals
4%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
87%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
60%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
16%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.00 + Hamilton Academical defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hamilton Academical attack 1.75 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Peterhead scores more
13%
level
20%
Hamilton Academical scores more
67%

Hamilton Academical at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
C. Newbury↳ K. Orsi
60'
J. Brown
61'
S. Bannigan← C. Blues
64'
T. Davies-Browne← A. Carnwath
64'
N. McGinn← Z. To
68'
D. Shiels← S. Hendrie
71'
F. Mackie← R. Teklemichael
74'
G. Crookston← C. Newbury
74'
D. Thomas← D. Thomas
87'
S. Bannigan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Hamilton Academical

Hamilton Academical beat Peterhead 1-0 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: C. Newbury (33').

The match was played at Balmoor in Peterhead.