Peterhead 0–2 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dunfermline

C. Mochrie 18'

M. Todd 10'

11/19/2022

League #183 · Round 16Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peterhead16%

×Draw25%

Dunfermline59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.61

Peterhead

0.70

Dunfermline

1.61

Dunfermline creates 130% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

1.43

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Peterhead

1.00

Dunfermline

1.80

allows per match

Peterhead

1.43

Dunfermline

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–116%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

41%

Peterhead or Dunfermline

75%

Draw or Dunfermline

84%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

4%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

50%

Peterhead 2+ goals

16%

Peterhead 3+ goals

3%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

80%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

48%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

21%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.00 + Dunfermline defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Dunfermline attack 1.80 + Peterhead defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Peterhead scores more

16%

level

25%

Dunfermline scores more

59%

Dunfermline at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Fisher

10'

M. Todd↳ J. Chalmers

18'

C. Mochrie↳ S. Fisher

44'

C. Wighton

57'

M. Hewitt

57'

K. Benedictus

61'

M. Gillies← Jack Brown

74'

Jordon Brown← R. Dow

77'

K. Ritchie-Hosler← C. Wighton

79'

88'

88'

90+1'

Peterhead

Dunfermline

1

4

2

12

3

15

A

Fisher

8

A

Chalmers

26

⚽

▼

Todd

11

⚽

Mochrie

9

▼

10

1

6

5

4

26

19

15

10

▼

Dow

8

McCarthy

22

Wilkie

12

▼

Brown

Manager: D. Nicholls

61'▲M. Gillies←▼Jack Brown

74'▲Jordon Brown←▼R. Dow

Peterhead substitutes

2Gillies18Brown17McGale27Wood16Wilson14Scullion21Murray7Asare

Manager: J. McPake

77'▲K. Ritchie-Hosler←▼C. Wighton

88'▲C. Hamilton←▼M. Todd

Dunfermline substitutes

21Ritchie-Hosler5Hamilton27Young29Sutherland28Tod6MacDonald30Mahon20Little