Dunfermline 4–0 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Peterhead

K. O'Hara 89'

J. Edwards 76'

M. Todd 36'

C. Wighton 17'

1/14/2023

League #183 · Round 22East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dunfermline58%

×Draw21%

Peterhead20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.08

Dunfermline

2.00

Peterhead

1.08

Dunfermline creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.00

Peterhead

1.17

allows per match

Dunfermline

1.00

Peterhead

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

80%

Dunfermline or Peterhead

79%

Draw or Peterhead

42%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

35%

Peterhead wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

86%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

59%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

32%

Peterhead 1+ goals

66%

Peterhead 2+ goals

29%

Peterhead 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

74%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.00 + Peterhead defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Peterhead attack 1.17 + Dunfermline defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dunfermline scores more

58%

level

21%

Peterhead scores more

20%

Dunfermline at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

C. Wighton↳ C. Mochrie

24'

31'

36'

45'

46'

Jordon Brown← R. Strachan

53'

B. Melingui← K. Shanks

68'

C. McLeod← G. Gabriel

76'

J. Edwards↳ C. Mochrie

77'

L. McCann← C. Wighton

78'

K. Ritchie-Hosler← M. Todd

78'

K. O'Hara← C. Mochrie

81'

N. Todorov← J. Chalmers

81'

R. Mahon← J. Edwards

85'

J. Brown

89'

K. O'Hara↳ R. Mahon

Dunfermline

Peterhead

1

Ritchie

6

▼

5

4

24

8

22

2

42

39

▼

Gabriel

10

▼

1

4

2

6

3

⚽A

▼

Edwards

15

Fisher

8

▼

Chalmers

5

Hamilton

26

⚽

▼

Todd

11

A

▼

Mochrie

9

⚽

▼

Wighton

Manager: J. McPake

77'▲L. McCann←▼C. Wighton

78'▲K. Ritchie-Hosler←▼M. Todd

78'▲K. O'Hara←▼C. Mochrie

81'▲N. Todorov←▼J. Chalmers

81'▲R. Mahon←▼J. Edwards

Dunfermline substitutes

14McCann21Ritchie-Hosler7O'Hara10Todorov30Mahon27Young12Breen20Little19Fenton

Manager: D. Robertson

46'▲Jordon Brown←▼R. Strachan

53'▲B. Melingui←▼K. Shanks

68'▲C. McLeod←▼G. Gabriel

Peterhead substitutes

18Brown29Melingui20McLeod15Strachan12Brown16Wilson27Wood23Walusimbi

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Peterhead

Dunfermline beat Peterhead 4-0 in League #183 on January 14, 2023.

Goals: C. Wighton (17'), M. Todd (36'), J. Edwards (76'), K. O'Hara (89').

The match was played at East End Park in Dunfermline.

Dunfermline vs Peterhead — League #183 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Peterhead