Peterhead 0–2 Dundee: Result & Stats | League Cup

Peterhead

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dundee

J. Mendy 90+3'

K. Madianga 49'

7/25/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Balmoor Stadium (Peterhead)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Peterhead16%

×Draw20%

Dundee64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.12

Peterhead

0.93

Dundee

2.12

Dundee creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

2.11

2.13

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Peterhead

1.13

Dundee

2.11

allows per match

Peterhead

2.13

Dundee

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

36%

Peterhead or Dundee

80%

Draw or Dundee

84%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

5%

Dundee wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

61%

Peterhead 2+ goals

24%

Peterhead 3+ goals

7%

Dundee 1+ goals

88%

Dundee 2+ goals

62%

Dundee 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

19%

Dundee (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Dundee away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.13 + Dundee defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Dundee attack 2.11 + Peterhead defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Peterhead scores more

16%

level

20%

Dundee scores more

64%

Dundee at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

K. Madianga↳ P. McGowan

56'

D. Lyle← R. McAllister

70'

C. Wighton← S. Moussa

90+3'

J. Mendy↳ C. Wighton

Peterhead

Dundee

12

4

24

2

18

A

McGowan

22

⚽

10

28

27

9

▼

Moussa

11

⚽

1

16

4

6

7

2

10

9

▼

12

14

11

Manager: Jim McInally

56'▲D. Lyle←▼R. McAllister

Peterhead substitutes

99Lyle8Brown17MacDonald15Buxton19McCracken21Gibson

Manager: N. McCann

70'▲C. Wighton←▼S. Moussa

Dundee substitutes

33Wighton46Henvey1Hamilton6O'Dea29Haber47Lambert43Rice