Dundee 0–0 Peterhead: Result & Stats | League Cup

Dundee

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterhead

7/20/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dundee78%

×Draw14%

Peterhead8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

0.70

Dundee

2.65

Peterhead

0.70

Dundee creates 279% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.80

creates per match

0.64

0.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Dundee

2.80

Peterhead

0.64

allows per match

Dundee

0.75

Peterhead

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

92%

Dundee or Peterhead

86%

Draw or Peterhead

22%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

57%

Peterhead wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

93%

Dundee 2+ goals

74%

Dundee 3+ goals

48%

Peterhead 1+ goals

50%

Peterhead 2+ goals

16%

Peterhead 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

91%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Peterhead away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.80 + Peterhead defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Peterhead attack 0.64 + Dundee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Dundee scores more

78%

level

14%

Peterhead scores more

8%

Dundee at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff