Peterhead 1–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cowdenbeath

S. Brown 43'

2/26/2019

League Two · Round 16Balmoor Stadium (Peterhead)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Peterhead55%

×Draw25%

Cowdenbeath20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.82

Peterhead

1.56

Cowdenbeath

0.82

Peterhead creates 90% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 60 away

1.68

creates per match

0.88

0.77

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Peterhead

1.68

Cowdenbeath

0.88

allows per match

Peterhead

0.77

Cowdenbeath

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

80%

Peterhead or Cowdenbeath

75%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

45%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

29%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

79%

Peterhead 2+ goals

46%

Peterhead 3+ goals

21%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

56%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

20%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

74%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.68 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cowdenbeath attack 0.88 + Peterhead defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peterhead scores more

55%

level

25%

Cowdenbeath scores more

20%

Peterhead at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

S. Brown

45'

J. Pyper← J. Todd

59'

M. Henvey← K. Miller

62'

D. Lyle← S. Sutherland

71'

W. Gibson← J. Leitch

81'

B. Malcolm← J. Allan

85'

P. Willis← R. McAllister

Peterhead

Cowdenbeath

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. McInally

62'▲D. Lyle←▼S. Sutherland

71'▲W. Gibson←▼J. Leitch

85'▲P. Willis←▼R. McAllister

Peterhead substitutes

LyleGibsonWillisEadieHomeWilloxHenderson

Manager: G. Bollan

45'▲J. Pyper←▼J. Todd

59'▲M. Henvey←▼K. Miller

81'▲B. Malcolm←▼J. Allan

Cowdenbeath substitutes

PyperHenveyMalcolmMcGurnSneddonFotheringhamScott