Cowdenbeath 1–3 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Peterhead

D. Cox 17'

R. McAllister 81', 35'

S. Sutherland 23'

3/5/2019

League Two · Round 23Central Park (Cowdenbeath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Cowdenbeath32%

×Draw26%

Peterhead42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Cowdenbeath

1.21

Peterhead

1.42

Peterhead creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

1.18

creates per match

1.49

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.18

Peterhead

1.49

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.34

Peterhead

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

58%

Cowdenbeath or Peterhead

74%

Draw or Peterhead

68%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

13%

Peterhead wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

70%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

34%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

12%

Peterhead 1+ goals

76%

Peterhead 2+ goals

41%

Peterhead 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

43%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.18 + Peterhead defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Peterhead attack 1.49 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

32%

level

26%

Peterhead scores more

42%

Peterhead at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Cox

23'

S. Sutherland

35'

R. McAllister

50'

S. Ferry← J. Stevenson

58'

D. Lyle← R. Dow

69'

M. Fotheringham← B. Malcolm

81'

R. McAllister

84'

P. Willis← R. McAllister

88'

J. Sheerin← H. Swan

Cowdenbeath

Peterhead

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: G. Bollan

69'▲M. Fotheringham←▼B. Malcolm

88'▲J. Sheerin←▼H. Swan

Cowdenbeath substitutes

FotheringhamSheerinMcGurnAllanPyperMillerSneddon

Manager: J. McInally

50'▲S. Ferry←▼J. Stevenson

58'▲D. Lyle←▼R. Dow

84'▲P. Willis←▼R. McAllister

Peterhead substitutes

FerryLyleWillisEadieHomeWilloxHenderson