Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peterborough vs Stevenage — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
18:45
Stevenage
Stevenage
9/1/2026League OneLeague One · Round 4Weston Homes Stadium
46%
Peterborough
model favours
46%25%29%

Peterborough sit 18, Stevenage 6 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Peterborough46%
×Draw25%
Stevenage29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.54
Stevenage
1.17

Peterborough creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.61
Stevenage
0.92

allows per match

Peterborough
1.42
Stevenage
1.46

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
71%
Peterborough or Stevenage
75%
Draw or Stevenage
54%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
23%
Stevenage wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
79%
Peterborough 2+ goals
45%
Peterborough 3+ goals
20%
Stevenage 1+ goals
69%
Stevenage 2+ goals
33%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
61%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.61 + Stevenage defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stevenage attack 0.92 + Peterborough defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterborough scores more
46%
level
25%
Stevenage scores more
29%

Peterborough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
57%Possession43%
79%Pass accuracy62%
13.4Shots9.1
1.41xGBiggest gap0.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughStevenage

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Stevenage
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peterborough host Stevenage

September 1, 2026: Peterborough take on Stevenage in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peterborough host Stevenage at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.