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Peterborough vs Plymouth — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
3/20/2027League OneLeague One · Round 36Weston Homes Stadium
Big match
45%
Plymouth
model favours
32%22%45%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Peterborough32%
×Draw22%
Plymouth45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.58
Plymouth
1.90

Plymouth creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Peterborough
2.10
Plymouth
2.17

allows per match

Peterborough
1.62
Plymouth
1.07

finishing

Peterborough+0.08on par
Plymouth-0.67scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
55%
Peterborough or Plymouth
78%
Draw or Plymouth
68%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
15%
Plymouth wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
79%
Peterborough 2+ goals
47%
Peterborough 3+ goals
21%
Plymouth 1+ goals
85%
Plymouth 2+ goals
56%
Plymouth 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
42%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.10 + Plymouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Plymouth attack 2.17 + Peterborough defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peterborough scores more
32%
level
22%
Plymouth scores more
45%

Plymouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Peterborough sit 18, Plymouth 8 in the table
  • 73% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of Plymouth’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
57%Possession46%
80%Pass accuracy65%
12.3Shots14.0
1.66xGBiggest gap2.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughPlymouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 20%
0–11–05–20–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Plymouth
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with Peterborough hosting Plymouth. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peterborough host Plymouth at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.