Peterborough 0–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Plymouth

Ruben Lameiras 88'

2/2/2019

League One · Round 31ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Peterborough35%

×Draw23%

Plymouth42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.75

Peterborough

1.56

Plymouth

1.75

Plymouth creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.91

creates per match

2.00

1.51

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Plymouth

1.22

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

58%

Peterborough or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

65%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

17%

Plymouth wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

46%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Plymouth 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth 2+ goals

52%

Plymouth 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

45%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

35%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

42%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

45'

45'

46'

64'

67'

J. Riley← A. Smith-Brown

74'

Niall Canavan

76'

K. Dempsey← C. Cooke

77'

L. Jephcott← R. Taylor

88'

Ruben Lameiras

90+3'

M. Godden← D. Lafferty

90'

Y. Songo'o← Ruben Lameiras

Peterborough

Plymouth

21

3

14

5

23

▼

8

10

7

11

⚽

▼

Lameiras

9

▼

Taylor

19

Ladapo

25

O'Malley

18

▼

2

16

6

4

14

▼

Cooke

10

▼

29

17

15

Manager: D. Ferguson

46'▲L. Reed←▼S. Dembele

76'▲K. Dempsey←▼C. Cooke

90+3'▲M. Godden←▼D. Lafferty

Peterborough substitutes

11Reed30Dempsey9Godden1Chapman3Knight21Maddison26Stevens

Manager: D. Adams

67'▲J. Riley←▼A. Smith-Brown

77'▲L. Jephcott←▼R. Taylor

90'▲Y. Songo'o←▼Ruben Lameiras

Plymouth substitutes

2Riley35Jephcott4Songo'o1Macey20Jones26Threlkeld25Wootton