Peterborough 0–1 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

S. Surridge 45'

4/23/2022

Championship · Round 44Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough33%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Peterborough

1.11

Nottingham Forest

1.23

Nottingham Forest creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 95 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

61%

Peterborough or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

67%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

67%

Peterborough 2+ goals

30%

Peterborough 3+ goals

10%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

71%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

35%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

46%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peterborough scores more

33%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

39%

Nottingham Forest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

H. Burrows

Peterborough · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

Harrison Burrows

25'

Jack Taylor

45'

S. Surridge↳ B. Johnson

46'

J. Marriott← R. Jones

61'

J. Lolley← P. Zinckernagel

66'

J. Randall← J. Fuchs

67'

Sammie Szmodics

73'

Sam Surridge

74'

L. Grabban← S. Surridge

88'

Jack Colback

89'

Cafú← L. Grabban

90'

Brice Samba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughNottingham

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots12

6Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target4

2Off Target5

5Blocked3

6Inside Box12

6Outside Box0

Passing

46%Possession54%

352Total Passes412

228Accurate Passes305

65%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2