Nottingham Forest 2–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

R. Yates 84'

J. Garner 72'

12/4/2021

Championship · Round 21The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Nottingham Forest61%

×Draw22%

Peterborough17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.84

Nottingham Forest

1.84

Peterborough

0.84

Nottingham Forest creates 119% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 25 away

1.41

creates per match

0.68

1.00

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Peterborough

0.68

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Peterborough

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

83%

Nottingham Forest or Peterborough

78%

Draw or Peterborough

39%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

36%

Peterborough wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

84%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

55%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

28%

Peterborough 1+ goals

57%

Peterborough 2+ goals

21%

Peterborough 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

78%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Peterborough defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

Peterborough attack 0.68 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

61%

level

22%

Peterborough scores more

17%

Nottingham Forest at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

J. Garner

Nottingham Forest · M

8.5

Match Events

57'

Jonson Clarke-Harris

64'

Dan Butler

68'

C. Coventry← H. Burrows

72'

J. Garner↳ L. Grabban

78'

S. Szmodics← O. Norburn

79'

Nathan Thompson

80'

Cafú← B. Ojeda

82'

Brice Samba

84'

R. Yates↳ J. Garner

85'

L. Taylor← L. Grabban

86'

Ronnie Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamPeterborough

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots10

5Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target2

9Off Target2

3Blocked6

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

460Total Passes388

377Accurate Passes307

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0