Peterborough 0–3 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Mansfield Town

W. Evans 31', 9'

B. Cargill 6'

12/26/2024

League One · Round 22Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Peterborough41%

×Draw26%

Mansfield Town33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Peterborough

1.42

Mansfield Town

1.25

Peterborough creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 25 away

1.87

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Peterborough

1.87

Mansfield Town

1.16

allows per match

Peterborough

1.33

Mansfield Town

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

67%

Peterborough or Mansfield Town

74%

Draw or Mansfield Town

59%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

76%

Peterborough 2+ goals

41%

Peterborough 3+ goals

17%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

36%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Mansfield Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mansfield Town attack 1.16 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peterborough scores more

41%

level

26%

Mansfield Town scores more

33%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Evans

Mansfield Town · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

B. Cargill↳ K. Baccus

9'

W. Evans

31'

W. Evans↳ K. Baccus

46'

O. Wallin← J. Dornelly

46'

C. Conn-Clarke← R. Jones

46'

H. Kyprianou← J. Randall

46'

S. McLaughlin← B. Cargill

53'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

55'

Stephen McLaughlin

59'

A. Odoh← C. Hayes

60'

A. Kilgour← F. Blake-Tracy

64'

66'

72'

72'

73'

D. O'Brien-Brady← R. De Havilland

78'

79'

81'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughMansfield

Overview

64%Possession36%

6Total Shots23

1Corners14

8Fouls25

Shots

6Total Shots23

2On Target11

1Off Target5

3Blocked7

2Inside Box16

4Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

566Total Passes286

470Accurate Passes206

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls25

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2