Peterborough 2–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

M. Godden 85'

M. Maddison 57' (pen)

4/6/2019

League One · Round 41ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Peterborough48%

×Draw25%

Gillingham27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.17

Peterborough

1.63

Gillingham

1.17

Peterborough creates 39% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 99 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

73%

Peterborough or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

52%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

25%

Gillingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

80%

Peterborough 2+ goals

48%

Peterborough 3+ goals

22%

Gillingham 1+ goals

69%

Gillingham 2+ goals

33%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

64%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterborough scores more

48%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

27%

Peterborough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

R. Charles-Cook← M. Byrne

28'

Luke O'Neill

57'

M. MaddisonPenalty

62'

64'

69'

76'

80'

E. List← G. Burke

82'

Dean Parrett

83'

J. Knight← L. Reed

85'

M. Godden↳ M. Maddison

90+1'

B. King← R. Charles-Cook

Peterborough

Gillingham

1

12

2

34

33

▼

8

5

17

9

10

▼

7

1

5

18

2

16

4

11

▼

Reed

10

Dembele

29

▼

Tomlin

17

▼

Toney

21

⚽A

Maddison

Manager: D. Ferguson

64'▲M. Godden←▼I. Toney

76'▲G. Cooper←▼L. Tomlin

83'▲J. Knight←▼L. Reed

Peterborough substitutes

9Godden19Cooper3Knight14Cooke23Denton25O'Malley26Stevens

Manager: S. Lovell

25'▲R. Charles-Cook←▼M. Byrne

80'▲E. List←▼G. Burke

90+1'▲B. King←▼R. Charles-Cook

Gillingham substitutes

11Charles-Cook15List21King4Lacey14Campbell24Rees30Hadler