Gillingham 1–3 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

J. Akinde 31' (pen)

J. Clarke-Harris 67', 47'

S. Dembélé 52'

2/16/2021

League One · Round 20Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw25%

Peterborough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.47

Gillingham

1.32

Peterborough

1.47

Peterborough creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 157 away

1.19

creates per match

1.46

1.48

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

15%

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

41%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Clarke-Harris

Peterborough · F

8.0

Match Events

31'

J. AkindePenalty

44'

46'

47'

48'

52'

S. Dembélé↳ S. Szmodics

53'

J. Graham← V. Oliver

64'

Jonson Clarke-Harris

64'

T. Johnson← T. OConnor

64'

A. MacDonald← O. Lee

65'

John Akinde

67'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ J. Ward

74'

R. McKenzie← C. Slattery

77'

Dan Butler

79'

Robbie McKenzie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamPeterborough

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots11

3Corners6

16Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots11

2On Target6

4Off Target2

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

270Total Passes444

161Accurate Passes336

60%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1