Gillingham 1–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

M. Mandron 80'

M. Eisa 51' (pen)

J. Ward 40'

10/19/2019

League One · Round 14Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw25%

Peterborough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.47

Gillingham

1.32

Peterborough

1.47

Peterborough creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 157 away

1.19

creates per match

1.46

1.48

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

15%

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

41%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Mandron

Gillingham · F

7.8

Match Events

40'

J. Ward↳ J. Knight

46'

Max Ehmer

51'

Mark Byrne

51'

M. EisaPenalty

58'

A. Jakubiak← M. Ndjoli

64'

M. Mandron← O. Lee

66'

Josh Knight

75'

D. Butler← S. Dembele

80'

M. Mandron↳ B. Hanlan

83'

M. Marshall← S. OKeefe

86'

A. Woodyard← M. Eisa

88'

Connor Ogilvie

90'

I. Kanu← J. Ward

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamPeterborough

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots10

9Corners7

17Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target2

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

244Total Passes325

131Accurate Passes217

54%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0