Peterborough 0–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

4/29/2023

League One · Round 45Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Peterborough53%

×Draw24%

Bristol Rovers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.05

Peterborough

1.74

Bristol Rovers

1.05

Peterborough creates 66% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 133 away

1.90

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Peterborough

1.90

Bristol Rovers

0.94

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Bristol Rovers

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

77%

Peterborough or Bristol Rovers

76%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

47%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

29%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

82%

Peterborough 2+ goals

52%

Peterborough 3+ goals

25%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

65%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

28%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

70%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peterborough scores more

53%

level

24%

Bristol Rovers scores more

23%

Peterborough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

E. Balcombe

Bristol Rovers · G

8.2

Match Events

20'

34'

44'

45+4'

45+3'

51'

51'

57'

H. Kyprianou← O. Norburn

70'

J. Marquis← R. Loft

70'

S. Sinclair← L. Bogarde

78'

R. Jones← J. Knight

81'

Ellery Balcombe

89'

H. Anderson← A. Collins

90+1'

Jack Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBristol

Overview

57%Possession43%

23Total Shots6

12Corners2

8Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots6

5On Target2

9Off Target3

9Blocked1

15Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

428Total Passes340

320Accurate Passes230

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards5

8Offsides1