Bristol Rovers 3–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

R. Sotiriou 83'

I. Hutchinson 62'

J. Wilson 16'

R. Jones 90+1'

2/2/2025

League One · Round 30Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bristol Rovers38%

×Draw25%

Peterborough37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.40

Bristol Rovers

1.41

Peterborough

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 95 away

1.23

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.23

Peterborough

1.38

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.42

Peterborough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

63%

Bristol Rovers or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

62%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Peterborough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

41%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Peterborough 1+ goals

75%

Peterborough 2+ goals

41%

Peterborough 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

50%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.23 + Peterborough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Peterborough attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

38%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

37%

Bristol Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Wilson

Bristol Rovers · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

George Nevett

16'

J. Wilson↳ M. Butcher

19'

Mahamadou Susoho

27'

Luke Thomas

41'

C. Martin← G. ODonkor

46'

C. Hayes← G. Lindgren

46'

M. Mothersille← A. Odoh

62'

I. Hutchinson↳ G. Ward

63'

H. Kyprianou← Mahamadou Susoho

71'

R. De Havilland← A. Collins

72'

S. Sinclair← L. Thomas

76'

J. Katongo← G. Nevett

77'

Nicholas Bilokapic

83'

R. Sotiriou↳ C. Martin

84'

J. Senior← J. Hunt

84'

R. Sawyers← M. Butcher

90+4'

Isaac Hutchinson

90+1'

R. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolPeterborough

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots19

7Corners6

9Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots19

6On Target7

4Off Target5

3Blocked7

9Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

358Total Passes464

262Accurate Passes369

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4