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Petare FC vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Petare FC
Petare FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
8/27/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 8Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Petare FC55%
×Draw27%
Nueva Esparta18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petare FC
1.44
Nueva Esparta
0.68

Petare FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 38 away

creates per match

Petare FC
1.46
Nueva Esparta
0.58

allows per match

Petare FC
0.77
Nueva Esparta
1.42

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par
Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Nueva Esparta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw
82%
Petare FC or Nueva Esparta
73%
Draw or Nueva Esparta
45%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+
28%
Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals
76%
Petare FC 2+ goals
42%
Petare FC 3+ goals
18%
Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
49%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
15%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)
76%
Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Petare FC scores more
55%
level
27%
Nueva Esparta scores more
18%

Petare FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Petare FC 1–1 Nueva Esparta

Petare FC and Nueva Esparta drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.