Nueva Esparta 1–2 Petare FC: Result & Stats

Nueva Esparta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Petare FC

10/13/2024

Segunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta39%

×Draw30%

Petare FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva EspartaExpected goals in this matchPetare FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.94

Nueva Esparta

1.10

Petare FC

0.94

Nueva Esparta creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

1.13

creates per match

0.84

1.03

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Nueva Esparta

1.13

Petare FC

0.84

allows per match

Nueva Esparta

1.03

Petare FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Petare FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw

69%

Nueva Esparta or Petare FC

70%

Draw or Petare FC

61%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

16%

Petare FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

67%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

30%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

10%

Petare FC 1+ goals

61%

Petare FC 2+ goals

24%

Petare FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

56%

Petare FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more

39%

level

30%

Petare FC scores more

31%

Nueva Esparta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff