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Petare FC vs Minervén — Segunda División 2018

Petare FC
Petare FC
FT
8 – 0
Minervén
Minervén
8/7/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Petare FC78%
×Draw14%
Minervén8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petare FC
2.62
Minervén
0.72

Petare FC creates 264% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 9 away

creates per match

Petare FC
1.46
Minervén
0.67

allows per match

Petare FC
0.77
Minervén
3.78

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par
Minervén+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Minervén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw
92%
Petare FC or Minervén
86%
Draw or Minervén
22%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+
56%
Minervén wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals
93%
Petare FC 2+ goals
73%
Petare FC 3+ goals
48%
Minervén 1+ goals
51%
Minervén 2+ goals
16%
Minervén 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)
91%
Minervén (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Minervén away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Minervén defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.62

Minervén attack 0.67 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Petare FC scores more
78%
level
14%
Minervén scores more
8%

Petare FC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Petare FC 8–0 Minervén

Petare FC beat Minervén 8-0 in Segunda División on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.