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Minervén vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
FT
0 – 1
Petare FC
Petare FC
9/26/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén16%
×Draw21%
Petare FC63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
0.92
Petare FC
2.04

Petare FC creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 102 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
37%
Minervén or Petare FC
79%
Draw or Petare FC
84%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
5%
Petare FC wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
60%
Minervén 2+ goals
23%
Minervén 3+ goals
7%
Petare FC 1+ goals
87%
Petare FC 2+ goals
60%
Petare FC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
20%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Minervén scores more
16%
level
21%
Petare FC scores more
63%

Petare FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Minervén 0–1 Petare FC

Petare FC beat Minervén 1-0 in Segunda División on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.